Today, the well-known analyst Ming-Chi Kuo released the latest research report. He believes that the 6.1-inch dual-camera version of the iPhone 12 will account for the largest proportion of the four models, which may reach 40-45%.
According to the report, iPhone 12 mini (5.4-inch), iPhone 12, iPhone 12 Pro (6.1-inch with three cameras), and iPhone 12 Pro Max (6.7-inch) accounted for 20–25%, 40–45%, 15 –20%, and 15–20%. Although the price of the iPhone 12 mini is relatively low, it cannot meet the general needs of users for a large screen. Although the iPhone 12 Pro and Pro Max have higher specifications, their prices are higher. Therefore, it is considered that the iPhone 12 has the highest shipment proportion in the iPhone 12 series.
Ming-Chi Kuo reported that the key to the shipment of the iPhone 12 series is the selling price. In 1Q-3Q20, the iPhone 11 accounted for approximately 70-75% of the overall shipments of the iPhone 11 series. It is believed that selling price is the key to success. Although 5G is a key hardware upgrade for the iPhone 12 series, as 5G services have not yet become popular, the price is still the most critical factor affecting the demand for the iPhone 12 series. Among the iPhone 12 series, the iPhone 12 has the highest proportion of shipments. Therefore, the price of the iPhone 12 is the most important observation point.
Kuo said that the shipment forecast for the iPhone 12 series parts in 4Q20 does not reflect real demand. The iPhone 12 series parts shipments in 4Q20 are estimated to be 80–85 million units, higher than the 75 million units of the iPhone 11 series in 4Q19. However, due to the short sales time, we believe that the demand for the iPhone 12 series in 4Q20 should be lower than that of the iPhone 11 series in 4Q19. So, we believe that the iPhone 12 series parts shipment forecast in 4Q20 cannot reflect real demand.
In addition, Ming-Chi Kuo also said that if the price of the iPhone 12 is lower than the iPhone 11’s $699, the supply chain stock price will continue to rise after the launch. However, because the iPhone 12 will be shipped after mid-Q4 in 2020, some of the demand in the European and American markets may be missed due to the supply shortage in the early stage of the sale.