The well-known analyst Ming-Chi Kuo released a report today that his latest survey pointed out that the 4Q20 demand and the 2021 outlook for iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch, and Mac are better than expected.
Demand for the new iPad Air was better than expected. Looking ahead to 2021, we expect iPad growth to be driven by the adoption of new technologies (e.g., mini LED, 5G support, etc.) as well as new low-cost iPad launches in 2H21.
The above conclusions are mainly based on the following 4 points:
1. The demand for iPhone 12 Pro and Pro Max are better than expected, offsetting the lower than expected demand for 12 and 12 mini, so overall iPhone shipments were better than expected. We take a positive view on the shipment momentum of the iPhone 12 series in 1H21 and the replacement demand for the new 2H21 iPhone.
2. Demand for the new iPad Air is better than expected. Looking ahead to 2021, we predict that the iPad’s growth momentum will come from the adoption of new technologies (such as mini LED, 5G support, etc.) and the new low-priced iPad in 2H21.
3. Demand for the new Apple Watch 6 and Watch SE is better than expected. We predict that the new Apple Watch’s shipment momentum in 2021 will benefit from innovative health management functions and improved design.
4. Demand for MacBook models equipped with Apple M1 is better than expected. We take a positive view of the new MacBook models with Apple Silicon and the new design that is expected to be released in 2H21.
The report also said that AirPods shipments were lower than expected, and it is predicted that AirPods shipments will be flat or decline by 5-10% in 1H21, which is lower than the market’s estimated 20% YoY growth. There are three reasons why AirPods 1H21 shipments are lower than expected:
1. The supply of parts is tight, and the iPhone has a higher priority for sharing parts than AirPods.
2. The market is too optimistic about the demand for AirPods due to the cancellation of free wired headphones for iPhones.
3. The shipping time of AirPods 3 may be postponed to the end of 2Q21, so the replacement demand will be more obvious in 2H21.
